Why You Don't Need to Wait for the Fed: The Truth About Mortgage Rates
I get this question almost daily: "Lara, should we wait until September when the Federal Reserve meets? Won't mortgage rates drop then?"
Here's what most people don't know — and what could save you months of waiting.
Rates Have Already Been Dropping
Want proof?
Look at what's happened over the past seven weeks — mortgage rates have gone down almost every single week. We didn't need to wait for any Fed meeting. The market saw the writing on the wall and rates responded.
Here's how we've moved through this year:
Started around 6.8%
Had some ups and downs through spring
Been in a steady decline for seven weeks straight
What Rates Look Like Right Now
These rates include a 1% buy-down (which is how most lenders advertise):
VA/FHA (government loans): High 5s
Conventional: Lower 6s
Investor loans: High 6s
Yes, rates go up a bit if you don't want the buy-down, but the key point remains: you don't have to wait for the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve Doesn't Control Mortgage Rates
I know this might surprise you, but mortgage rates are bonds. They move based on what investors think will happen, not what the Fed actually does.
When there's an 87% chance the Fed will drop rates by a quarter percent next month (which there is right now), mortgage rates have already moved to reflect that prediction. The market doesn't wait around for official announcements.
The Reality Check on Future Rates
Will rates drop dramatically overnight? No. But we're looking at a steady decline through the rest of this year and into 2026.
Fannie Mae predicts conventional rates will hit 6.1% by the end of 2026 — about half a percent lower than today. That's a gradual move down, not a cliff dive.
What This Means for You
If you're a buyer: Waiting for the Fed meeting won't get you better rates than what's available right now. The market has already priced in the expected changes.
If you're an agent: Your clients don't need to pause their home search waiting for "better rates next month." The rates are improving now based on market predictions.
The bond market moves daily based on investor sentiment and economic predictions. That 87% probability of a Fed rate cut? It's already built into today's mortgage rates.
Ready to see what rate you can lock in today? Let's talk about your specific situation and get you moving forward instead of waiting on the sidelines.
Have questions about how current rates affect your buying power or timeline? I'm just a phone call away and happy to walk through your loan profile — no surprises, just clear answers.